Are we on the brink of WW3?

[Syf]

Greetings all,

With all the conflict going on in the middle east, and even an issue with North Korea heating up, are we on the brink of an all out World War 3? That's my question to you. Since we are an international community here on MSFC, I'd like to hear your thoughts and fears of the issues facing all of us. Is this just another part of the world's "war on Terrorism" (with Israel's fight with Lebanon)? Is Iran actually using the Hezbollah as a first strike in an effort to create the chaos needed for the return of the Muslim prophet? Are the middle east nations banding or going to band together to launch an all out strike against the non-Muslim nations? Is the North Korea nuclear issue going to cause Japan, China, and/or the U.S. to launch a "First Strike" against them? What does this all mean to you directly, or indirectly?

I look forward to hearing what you think about all this. Feel free to discuss any related issues within the confines of this thread. If something in the news pops up, bring it up and we can chat about it.

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

Yes, we seem to stand at a turning point. All that what we see in the media, the small conflicts and skirmishes all over the world and the remilitarisation of political thinking.
Did you know that Russia just entered a new doctrine that is meant to counter the number of nuclear weapons of NATO? Meanwhile the foreign policy of the USA tended to include the military options as very viable...
All these small fights seem to tend to grow. Additionally more such conflicts evolve, like what we see in Israel/Lebanon now. Israel must be criticised for these actions taken. They made a prisoner story to the stepstone for a possible war that right now starts to destabilize the Middle East even more as it is destabilizied already. The Hezbollah camp where the soldiers are presumably held captive could be detected by the fine Israelian intelligence and operational intelligence services.
And I understand the fear of the Lebanese people of the Israelian army. Last time Israel entered Lebanese territory they slaughtered a whole village because no one knew where a certain Hezbollah leader was at that time.
Hezbollah? Aren't better either. The continous build-up to a small-size army (large-scale milita) supported by Iran and Mr. Ahmadinedjads proposal to "eradicate Israel from the map" do have their share in this conflict that will grow constantly.
But I do think this time Israel did use the hostage situation to escalate - and noone rises a voice to stop the hatred. It almost seems that this is the long awaited political/military earthquake of that region. But who suffers? Civilians!

Honestly, this time the media report over Iran, Korea and Israel with a certain chill and calm kind. What I see worries me.

If you ask me, we're heading right into a major conflict. And I am young (or old) enough to be part of the cannonfodder.

Ps: I leave Korea to someone else. Go, raise your voice!
Ps2: I like Israel, I was there two times and it was marvellous.

 

[Syf]

I think this is going to get a lot worse. I do not blame Israel for what they are doing, personally speaking. The destabilization of the Middle east is something that we have seen in the making for a long time coming. 2 of the 3 major players in that region (India and Pakistan) have not entered the fray yet. Those are the other "Nuclear" powers in the region. If they do also destabilize, then you may as well say WW3 has started. The bad thing is going to be when the Alliances are made, and they all band together against Israel. Then the "Western" nations (Western Nations = meaning the Allied nations of the UN/Nato) will have no choice but to get invovled.

I myself can not be called to enter military duty. So all I can say toward the younger people is "Godspeed". I will be praying for you.

 

[Cylon]

even if the USA Uk and the rest of Europe got involved with what was going on in the middle east it probably wouldnt effect the people at home much more than the iraq war. none of the middle easten armies dont have the military might to beat any of the western countriesa in a full on war. The main danger lies not in ICBMs but in smaller suitcase bombs aquired by terrorist groups who have nothing to lose by using nuclear weapons

 

[Syf]

even if the USA Uk and the rest of Europe got involved with what was going on in the middle east it probably wouldnt effect the people at home much more than the iraq war. none of the middle easten armies dont have the military might to beat any of the western countriesa in a full on war. The main danger lies not in ICBMs but in smaller suitcase bombs aquired by terrorist groups who have nothing to lose by using nuclear weapons

Indeed. I think we all have heard of the suitcase nukes, and that several are missing from the Russian inventory. I think we can all say we are afraid of whom may be in possession of them. The only thing that the UN can do is provide aid (Food, Medicine, Etc), and condem the actions of the different parties involved. NATO will most likely be called on to prevent as much Aerial/Ballistic incursions to nations take no part of this comming war. The whole thing is "almost" predictable on how things will go, if war is to became of this. The major problem for nations outside of the conflict is as stated, the unknown factors.

 

[Paul]

missin . 1st ive heard of that but still . if they wanna bomb each other , let em . terrorist need to die , let the tanks and aircraft go , bombs away lads and Qapla'

flames away

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

missin . 1st ive heard of that but still . if they wanna bomb each other , let em . terrorist need to die , let the tanks and aircraft go , bombs away lads and Qapla'

flames away

A family killed in Bairut are no terrorists. And that's the point.
I do think terrorists need to die, too, but Hezbollah is no city guerilla like the German Red Army Faction from the 70s or the Italian Brigato Rosso (70s, too), they are more like the Taliban in Afghanistan as they are now (country guerilla). The government in Bairut cannot control the areas in the south of Lebanon anymore. There the Hezbollah militias are located.
But Israel bombs the city centers - where no Hezbollah militants are.
I am confused what Israel does there! No special ops to free the soldiers, no strikes against the training camps, but bombardements of Beirut where the government sits that began considering kicking out Hezbollah a year ago but did not yet suceed, because Israel tried to disband it with passive measures...
and now bombs it.
The Arab League doesn't really know what to do either.

Concerning the suitcase nukes:
Russia did not produce these bombs. Tactical battlefield nukes, yes.
BUT it is reported that radioactive materials have been stolen from abandonded missile bases in the CIS members like Georgia.
I actually think that these suitcase nukes won't come now! Right Now! No.
Because a nuclear weapon is not that easy to produce and maintained.
But when Iran finally manages to produce weapon technology like that itself, then these bombs will become reality.
Before that, missiles are still a threat: Look at the Lebanon conflict. The Israelian warship was hit by a missile and Iran also developed variants of the Iraqi al-Saddam missiles and the Soviet SCUDS.
Pakistan seems to be quite quiet in that conflict, as India does. No wonder as Pakistan and India tried to get a little closer and stop the continuing war danger.

God? God won't help us. Believe in god will only make this situation more worse. Cool heads are a good religion in such times.

 

[Blindeye]

Just remember the big picture, this has happened many times in history without causing a world war. We must keep perspective.

 

[Jamie_to_cute]

war

speaking for my self and i have family over there its sad that they cant get along i think some one should get them all to stop and try to work something out. but mostlikely its going to really ugly.as a jew who lives in the usa and speaking for my own i would be angry if another country was bombing the state i was in. because that state had a lot of jew there or kidnaping pople from my state do to race. not saying the jews there are right but they should be abel to defend them selfs.i think they should of did more talking befor bombing.and if the other countrys get in it now it will cause a split in the u n. and even a biger war will start. sorry for my spelling and thanks for letting me give my thoughts

 

[Cylon]

If more countrys come to try and "Keep peace" the war will escalate.

 

[Paul]

think about it

if we let it go , its only a matter of time before another sky scraper is took down to earth by these guys , they must be stoped ! . if it means a few civilians die due to cross fire then it cant be helped , if they want a better chance , get out of the warzone .

i think the bombings would stop as soon as these guys retreat , think about this

in Irak , terrorists are in the open plans fightin the troops , not many civilians are hurt due to cross fire , but they also love the old car bombs in towns , this must stop .

they must be defeated and countrys supporting these guys Should be invaded ! . take out there support and weapons dealers , that way they get rid of the support these guys are getting ( such as Ammo , Safehouses ect ) and also get them on the run

Terrorist Will be killed , never forget what these guys have done ! , from the 9/11 attack , to the Train Bombings , to the 7/7 tube bombs . all aimed at civilian targets . none aimed at any millitery or goverment buildings . they can only hit these effectivly .

kill them now and show them terror is NOT ur friend !

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

But with invading you only turn the circle of violence faster -
and (now comes a part of Cold War strategy into it) you signalise the will to escalate! Now the terrorist will escalate, too, and use the hard weapons.
It is like it with militias like Hezbollah.

As for killing them all...
They are a lot more patient than we are. Qaeda stated that their fight might take a hundred years.

This level of violence is just brutally stunning.

 

[Syf]

This is the good thing about talking about things. We get to see how other people see things and feel toward issues that the world has. Let's just all remember that talking and debating about things is no reason to get upset. Nothing like having friends to talk to!
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War is a vicious circle. It is sad that the terrorists think that by killing civilians that they can change things to favor themselves. All it does is force alliances against a common threat. In May and June, over 6,000 Iraqi civilians have been slain by the terrorists operating there. These idiots seem to think that they can force the allied forces out by killing the same people that they are supposedly fighting for... But in truth, all they are doing is digging their own graves. Murder is murder. Be it in the name of some god or other deity, or for personal gain. The only time killing is justifiable is to save someone's life that would have otherwise ended do to a murderous act. That's what these people that we see as terrorists are, is murderers.

Now with this Israeli issue, the Israelis are only intending to hunt down those that have been terrorizing. I think that Israel has the right to defend it's borders. Since the Lebanon government has no way of stopping the Hezbollah, then I don't see why people are saying Israel is in the wrong for entering Lebanon. Israel is doing the exact same thing almost any other nation would do. Think about it, would not the US, UK, Germany, Japan, China, Australia, etc go kick someone's butt if their land was attacked with missiles and kidnapping/ killing of their citizens? Iran and Syria are both guilty of supporting the Hezbollah and the Hamas terrorist factions. So if Israel does have to get into a fight with either, it's understandable "why". I know that if Mexico (just an "example", as Mexico doesn't allow this) was supporting a terrorist faction that was attacking the US, we'd go down there with a full scale invasion. If North Korea was bombing China with missiles, then the China would retaliate with a full scale war, and so would any other nation in a similar situation. By supporting, sponsoring, and /or not stopping a faction from operating within their borders from attacking another nation, they have already declared war on that nation being attacked. As far as I see it, Iran and Syria declared war on Israel a long time ago.

Anyways, back to the question, how many people think that we, as a whole world, are on the verge of another "great war". I myself think we are getting closer and closer. How close, I'm not sure.

 

[Paul]

agreed . hope the bombs drop on the terrorists heads . hope they hit a nice big Armory where these missiles are stored . these idiots think they can terrorise ppl into submission . didnt they learn that this doesnt work ?

in history , Scotlands Willian Wallace was fightin and killin englishmen that where raping there wifes . when wallace was captured , the king had him killed , then had his body torn apart , sendin parts of him to all corners of britain and displayin his head on the london bridge . but when ppl saw this . they picked up arms and it began again . this time , a lot more ppl involved

watch Braveheart . english ppl wont like it ( ton of english gettin claymores thro em ) but it tells the real legend of wallace .

now this is quite similar , the terrorists are killing civilians and the civilians will soon pick up a ak-47 and start killin terrorists , its bound to happen . its just how long til a civil war starts

 

[Phoenix]

Well, Capt. , All I can say is the pudu is gonna hit the fan, and I have the odd feeling that Israel is gonna be doin' the throwing. But, yeah, this one could be really nasty. Dunno about WW3, but pretty bloody close . . .

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

Bombing Hezbollah is fine with me.
But not bombing Beirut City, where there is no Hezbollah.

 

[TM150]

Well syf is right any nation will defend their territory but if see in this way Lebanon have just get their indepence adn have severe inside problems guerrillas all that, but why Isreal bomb military intallation of Lebanon waht is the reason why acuse thre goverment of Lebanon about soemthing that they are not guilty, Hezbolla is the one who is firing back I haven't seen in the news about the Lebanon Army is attacking Israel, and now about the WW3 well if you see in this way...
North Korea is getting their plans in march and I'm sure that it don't be long before that the war there begin.
Iran, getting their nuclear weapons in at least 1 year, until then Iran could get in battle and whit Siria and even more.
this will be make at least a really bloody war now if UN try to stop this war by diplomatic way I really don't think that could be done something and if they send troops mayor nation would enter to war and it will be the 3th World War, of that I'm sure, but this the question, how much time will be neede for that this happen, this really go to happen, is possible the the Allies enter and the war get in a World War, well all this go to be in hands of time.

About religion, well people of Middle East use in bad ways the religion the put in front to god to kill people, but for example let's said US they always said god god god but are you sure that god is agree... who knows.

TM150 singing put!!

 

[Hellkite]

God knows I've had my full tasted of war and I care nothing for it

but in the cores of actions that are occurring I find that the escalation of the conflict is more than likely

both sides are in no way the innocent party and in this conflict only insgations that have festered for decades

I do not see this as a world war more of a regional war but no way WW3 thou it well have impact all of us

General Douglas MacArthur:

I know war as few other men now living know it, and nothing to me is more revolting. I have long advocated its complete abolition, as its very destructiveness on both friend and foe has rendered it useless as a method of settling international disputes.

 

[Syf]

Indeed, this is all from (Israel issue) things that have been happening for decades.

Let me just state that personally, I hope that the UK, EU, USA, or other parties do not have to get involved (in a military sense). However, "IF" Iran and Syria do go on the offensive, pro-Israel nations will have no choice but to render military aid to Israel.

About religion, well people of Middle East use in bad ways the religion the put in front to god to kill people, but for example let's said US they always said god god god but are you sure that god is agree... who knows.

Your right. I don't think for one second that any god agrees with war. Unless one believes in a God of war. I myself do not.

But not bombing Beirut City, where there is no Hezbollah.

Well, I have not personally been there. However, the information coming over the wire indicates that Hezbollah operates all over Lebonon, including having recruitment sites, weapons storage, and even mobile missile launchers there in Beirut City. If this is not the case, then I too do not understand why Israel would attack there. Unless there is something to do with the Hezbollahs (or other terrorist factions like Hamas), I don't think Israel would have any reason to attack there. But if there is so much as one Hezbollah operation there, it's reason enough. The Israel attacks is to destroy something that they believe is related to the Hezbollahs.

It's really a sad thing that Hezbollahs are nothing more than a bunch of cowards hiding behind civilians. If they wanted a fight with Israel, Why not go out in the open and march all thier troops (ok, thugs) toward the Israeli military and have their little "war". Leave people that are not part of it out of the fighting. Oh but wait, Terrorists would never fight with a military in open conflict that they would get their butts handed to them. Instead they hide in large populated areas, run out to fire missiles at someone, then go hide in the cities, hoping that no one will be able to find them, nor attack them. So, if your attempting to remove the infestations of insects in the walls of home, you have to give them a reason to leave. I know that it I had a bug problem in my house, I would evacuate those that are not bugs, then use "bug" bombs to kill the bugs in the walls.

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There is nothing like a good debate to help clear the head before having to head off to work. Keep up the great conversation.

 

[TM150]

Ey Syf my name is TM150 no Tm120

I'm agree whit Syf terrorsit are coward why the hide in the cities of inocent people, well know let's see all the wars ATM are becuase the problems since years, know if we analize this Iran and probably North Korea having nuclear weapons will be a risk for the major powers and all the world, but if maybe goverments don't get in external issues and only care about they oly security could bring a "tense" peace and will explode in a major cathastopher.


Tm150

 

[Majestic]

Ey Syf my name is TM150 no Tm120

I fixed that up for you mate.

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

There you have it:
Now, where Israel bombs Beirut and streets and bridges and busses, Hezbollah profits from the rage of the civilian population. Due to the high numer of civilian casualites many turn to Hezbollah. It is illogical that they turn to those who cannot stop the Israeli war machine, but it could be predicted.

It is like the the Bloody Sunday in Northern Ireland, where the Paratroopers striket to interdict the IRA and made them gain a major victory (due to heavy civilian casualities). Now the Israelis try to interdict Hezbollah (what I fully understand) and they make them gain a major propaganda victory (due to the civilian fatalities, again).

Both sides are wrong, that's the second worst thing about this conflict.

As for the WW3 issue:

What kind of war would it be?
Besides the United States of America no nation or Alliance of nations have really combat-worthy militaries. Maybe the Chinese, but they struggle heavily with they Tank Force and the Chinese Navy is just a little above the Russian Navy in combat readyness. The Chinese have two or three SSBNs (Xia class) and a few SSNs (Han Class) Would one of these SSBNs fire a missile the sub itself would be destroyed.
The surface units are of medium to good quality though (Russian tech as well, Krivak classes and some other frigates and destroyers of Russian design).
But China does not really behave like a giant that wants to go to war.

Other than that there are no armies that really could threaten larger powers.
A joint EU military (on national co-operation basis) is probably a deadly force (when bureaucracy is eleminated), but it is not likely that a clash between the EU and Russia happens (Russia is one of our biggest trade partners).
Germany has only expansionist plans in terms of daily stupidity and tax increases.
Russia's army is a shadow of what it was once. The forces are not ready for combat and mutiny during a real combat situation in a regular war is likely.
The Russian Navy is also a shadow of the once powerful tool of policy.

The conflict WOULD be of irregular nature. The worst kind of asymetric warfare perhaps.
Or it would simply not happen, when I think about it now.

 

[TM150]

ehhh are you forgeting nukes......

 

[Cylon]

if there is a third world war i think itl be over the last supplies of oil and other fossil fuels

 

[TM150]

No becuase there still solar energy. oil is not the onyl energy resource, but is very usseful, if it finish it will be a "Industries War" and no more only between companies.

And yes maybe Intrepid is right

Originally Posted by EAS Intrepid

What kind of war would it be?
Besides the United States of America no nation or Alliance of nations have really combat-worthy militaries. Maybe the Chinese, but they struggle heavily with they Tank Force and the Chinese Navy is just a little above the Russian Navy in combat readyness. The Chinese have two or three SSBNs (Xia class) and a few SSNs (Han Class) Would one of these SSBNs fire a missile the sub itself would be destroyed.
The surface units are of medium to good quality though (Russian tech as well, Krivak classes and some other frigates and destroyers of Russian design).
But China does not really behave like a giant that wants to go to war.

Yes but the mayor powers will no think about use nukes USA, Russia, China, and even more countries have this tecnology who in a way have bring peace but the war go to begin in countries without this tecnology and spread to the one whit.

Well...........

TM150

 

[EAS_Intrepid]

Nuclear weapons are not the only kind of weapons.

But if you would like me to continue my list:
Russians Nuclear Weapons, both tactical and strategic, are currently on the same standard as the naval forces.
I will give you a small inside look of what I currently now about the Russian Nuclear Weapons deployed to naval platforms.

The most important carrier of nukes on sea are the Typhoon subs, carrying 24 ballistic missiles with 3-4 MIRVs (Multiple Independent Re-Entry Vehicles). The Typhoons, built for turns of about three months, are only on (or above) the sea for about a week. That is because the crews are all drafted men (in the ages from 17 to 35) and not real sailors. In fact, many of them haven't seen sea before. Then the Reactor of the Typhoons are fairly old, though they proved quite endurable over the years. And the Russian naval command does not really trust the sub commanders.

The maintenance of nuclear weapons, TM150, is not only an issue of technical reasons.

Generalizing:
The Russia's nuclear forces are a shadow of the detterence force it was before the Soviet Union broke down. Putin ordered new nuclear weapons and the Russians also have a quite efficient tactical nuclear force.
Overall it is still a menace to most nations, though not to the USA or NATO.
The Chinese nuclear weapons can't be deployed beneath sea, as I wrote already about the Xia SSBNs. I honestly don't know much about the land based nuclear forces of China so I can't give a view on that. Maybe someone else can.

 

[TM150]

TB150: Who is he????

Yeah but you can't say that it is an unimportant factor. That's why the peace have endured long until now, between major powers.

Grammar and typos corrected - Intrepid

 

[Blindeye]

May I make a humble apparaisal?

Israel says it may invade with troops and leave once Hezbollah leaders are removed. Problem is even if Hezbollah is completely removed from Lebanon, those left behind who are angry for their homes being bombed will be the new Hezbollah. You cannot end this unless either Israel ceases to exist in which the crisis will become Sunni vs Shiite or Arab vs Persian (Basically Iran vs the middle east). Our options are limited in the short term, the only way to get peace without Israel leaving is to somehow take the fire from these terrorists and stand above them without these kind of show-offy politically motivaded attacks being made by Israel.

BTW I do not support either side in this, I think they are both stupid in this case.

 

[Majestic]

BTW I do not support either side in this, I think they are both stupid in this case.

I agree.

I also don't think a WW3 would happen, as the majority of the world are too dependent on each other in trade and other factors.

The only wars I can see happening are in the middle east, thats the hot spots at the moment.

 

[Phoenix]

Must admit, I support Israel. They've been getting quietly hammered for decades. But that's beside the point.

^ Very true. I also hope you are correct. I'd hate the world to explode over a long-standing border dispute. BUT bring these into the equation:

1: Where are the majority of the world's oil fields?

2: How many countries would LOVE to step in on the Arab side, just so that they can get conscessions on oil . . .

3: How many other countries would jump in the origional country's way to stop them getting the conscessions . . . etc . . .


General Pandemonium.

But, yes Majestic, I really hope you're right . . .